Tomorrow is one of the best days of the year. The last month has been full of misinformation on what teams might do in the draft. My goal is to sort out all of what I believe is the false info that has been thrown out there and give my best guess at what I think is true Last year, we hit on the Texans staying at the 2nd pick and then trading up for the 3rd pick in the draft (don’t worry about who I had them picking).
Note: this is not what I would do if I were each of these teams, but rather what I think they will end up doing. Nonetheless, let’s get into it.
Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams, QB USC
This pick is all but locked in. Chicago will probably take most of the 10 minutes before their pick, but we all know what they are doing. Williams goes to arguably the best situation a number 1 pick has ever gone to. Having DJ Moore and Keenan Allen as your top 2 weapons plus whatever they do at number 9 is an incredible advantage. General Manager Ryan Poles has set Williams up well to make noise in year 1 with a pretty well-built roster. Williams’ ability to create out of structure is what makes him special alongside great arm strength and accuracy. Coaching will remain a concern for William’s development as Head Coach Matt Eberflus hasn’t proven to be the guy to lead the Bears to the playoffs. Chicago lands who they hope and believe to be the savior of the franchise.
Washington Commanders - Drake Maye, QB North Carolina
There has been a lot of smoke about what the Commanders have wanted to do at two. For almost a month, it seemed as if Jayden Daniels was a lock for this pick. As recently as Monday, JJ McCarthy’s name began to crop up as a name to watch for the Commanders to take. Ultimately, I believe all of that is smoke and they will settle on Drake Maye to be their next franchise signal caller. Maye walks into a decent situation as he will have two above-average starters at wide receiver in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Maye offers a great blend of arm strength, mobility, and aggression that should help make him the franchise quarterback Washington has looked for since they lost Kirk Cousins.
TRADE: Minnesota Vikings - Jayden Daniels, QB LSU (New England receives picks 11, 23, and a 2025 1st Round pick)
More on why the Patriots make this move at their pick, but Minnesota makes the move that everyone has been expecting them to make since Kirk Cousins walked out the door. Daniels is coming from a situation where he had incredible talent at wide receiver and excellent pass protectors at the tackle position. Going to Minnesota, not much will change as he gets to throw to arguably the best wide receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson as well as an emerging stud in Jordan Addison. He gets to have Christian Darrisaw as his blindside protector for the foreseeable future too. After watching him tear apart SEC defenses with both his arm and his legs, Head Coach Kevin O’Connell gets his chance to be a quarterback whisper for a young rookie to mold into his franchise guy. The price they will have to pay is steep to get to this spot, but that’s the price you have to pay to get a quarterback through the draft.
Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr, WR Ohio State
Arizona gets their first selection of any non-quarterback in this draft and ends up selecting who many perceive to be the best player in this draft in Marvin Harrison Jr. With quarterback Kyler Murray locked in as the guy in Arizona, it now rests on the front office to surround him with a capable supporting cast around him. After Trey McBride broke out last year, Harrison slides in as the true alpha number 1 weapon wide receiver that this offense needs. With the versatility to line up all over the field and run any route, Harrison becomes the motor for this offense that needs a playmaker at outside receiver. Kyler has shown that he can feed #1 wide receivers in the offense (see DeAndre Hopkins’ production in Arizona) and should be the early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
TRADE: Tennessee Titans - Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame (Los Angeles receives pick 7, 2024 3rd round pick and a 2025 4th round pick)
Alt is widely considered the top tackle prospect in this class. Tennessee decides it is worth it to leapfrog the Giants to grab their left tackle of the future. Alt is an absolute giant of a man who is incredibly hard for pass-rushers to get around. He is a bulldozer in the run game as well that paves holes for whoever is running the ball. What makes Alt’s potential even greater is there is still room for him to grow as a technician with his footwork and hand placement. Alt slides in next to left guard Peter Skoronski to form a dynamic duo on the left side of the line. Quarterback Will Levis receives a new blindside blocker in an offense that features new additions Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley.
New York Giants - Malik Nabers, WR LSU
Quarterback was considered here, but the front office has to show ownership that it was justified in giving Daniel Jones that lucrative $160 million extension. After losing their best weapon in free agency Saquon Barkley, the Giants go ahead and select Nabers to be their new top weapon. The offense lacks explosive plays and Nabers is a walking big play threat. Whether it is deep balls down the field or creating with the ball in his hand, Nabers has shown on film he can expose a defense in a variety of ways. He isn’t just a boom-or-bust player either; he is a great route runner and can handle a lion's share of passing game volume. Jones has yet to have a wide receiver of this caliber and the Giants land him one with this selection.
Los Angeles Chargers - Tailese Fauga, OT Oregon State
New Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has made it clear his team-building philosophy will be from the trenches out (see how he recruited at Michigan). Despite a need at wide receiver and cornerback, the Chargers opt for Fauga to slot in at right tackle. With him and Rashawn Slater, the Chargers have their tackles for the foreseeable future to protect Justin Herbert. Faugua is a mauler in the run game and consistently drives opposing defensive ends into other gaps. He is solid as a pass protector but tends to get beat with speed around the edge. With the bringing on of Greg Roman as offensive coordinator and the signing of Gus Edwards and now JK Dobbins, the identity shift for the Chargers to a run-heavy team with Harbaugh is now realized.
TRADE: New England Patriots - Rome Odunze, WR Washington (Atlanta receives pick 11, 2024 2nd round pick, and a 2024 6th round pick)
I have New England wheeling and dealing in this Mock. Let me explain a little of what I think they would be doing. The Patriots do not have the infrastructure to drop a rookie quarterback in and expect him to succeed. While they may not pick as high as third overall again, they get a king’s ransom for the third quarterback in the class and get to build this roster up for a future franchise signal caller.
Now as to why they would trade up. With three elite wide receivers in the class, the Patriots make sure to not leave without one of them. With a receiving core currently headlined by Juju Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne, the Pats take the opportunity to trade back up for Rome Odunze. Oduzne projects very well as a number 1 outside wide receiver. He can handle a high target share and be incredibly effective at all three levels of the field. His incredible body control and hands allow him to snag amazing contested catches while draped by defenders. New England moves up to get their guy for Jacoby Brissett this year while keeping the majority of its draft capital for this year and next year.
Chicago Bears - Dallas Turner, Edge Alabama
With the top three wide receivers off the board, the Bears move to fill a need at edge rusher next to Montez Sweat. Turner is an incredibly versatile and powerful edge rusher who has displayed 3-down potential at the next level. While he may not be the best pure pass-rusher of the class, he offers a lot in that department as well as being a solid run-defender. Turner was able to put up gaudy stats next to Will Anderson at Alabama, and the hope is he would be able to do similarly next to an excellent pass rusher like Sweat. With the offensive infrastructure built out, the Bears opt to take the first defensive player off the board at pick 9.
New York Jets - Troy Fatanua, OT Washington
The Jets season was torpedoed last year after the Rodgers injury and was sunk even further by terrible offensive line play. While they have done a good job of filling those needs along the line in free agency, tackles Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith haven’t played over 14 games in a season in the last 2 years. The Jets wisely select Fatanua who can play all 5 positions on the line. What makes Fatanua special is his technique and footwork. He is one of the most physical players in this class while also having arguably the best footwork and punch in the class. Fatanua should be able to find a spot on the line to start and will help ensure the Rodgers experience doesn’t end tragically like it did last year.
Atlanta Falcons - Lauitu Latu, Edge UCLA
Atlanta trades back three spots expecting to get one of the top edge rushers in the class to fall to them. Both of their leaders in sacks last year are free agents currently, and they haven’t had a player record double-digit sacks since 2016 when Vic Beasley exploded for 16.5 sacks. Latu enters to help bring some semblance of a pass rush to this defense. Latu has incredible bend, hands, and twitch as a pass-rusher. He specializes in getting to the quarterback and projects to be the focal point of any team’s pass rush for years. So long as his prior history of injuries doesn’t hamper him in the pros, I expect him to be a consistent double-digit sack guy.
Denver Broncos - JJ McCarthy, QB Michigan
McCarthy’s slide stops here with Denver. While he has been reported to go as high as 2nd overall, I expect JJ to have a similar but smaller side than Will Levis had last year. Denver has no answer at the present moment for a quarterback. While this roster has tons of holes in it, Denver can take a swing on a guy who can be their franchise quarterback while not giving up draft capital to move up. McCarthy is a very young prospect who has shown a good amount of tools that should translate as a pro. He offers nice value as a creator with accurate throwing on the run. He has champisonship pedigree and seems unmoved on the biggest stages. Denver lands the guy who they hope can lead them in the aftermath of the Russell Wilson disaster.
Las Vegas Raiders - Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama
Antonio Pierce has made it clear he wants to build this team and have its identity rooted in its defense. With a hole at outside cornerback, Arnold slots in as the corner tasked with covering the opponent’s number-one wide receiver. Arnold is a sticky man coverage corner who has inside and outside versatility. He loves sticking his nose in the run game and making big stops on the perimeter. With Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins getting after the quarterback, Arnold will be tasked with holding down the backend in what shapes up to be a pretty scary Raiders defense.
New Orleans Saints - JC Latham, OT Alabama
The Saints are in desperate need of a right tackle after news that current right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s career may be in jeopardy because of a right knee cartilage issue. Latham played right tackle this past year for Alabama and was a beast in the run game. He stacked up pancakes,and it was over for the defensive lineman if he got his hands on them. Latham was above average in pass-pro but some balance issues would crop up. An issue he had in college that cannot crop up in the NFL was how much he ended up on the ground. Latham becomes a plug-and-play right tackle to pair with former first-round pick Trevor Penning.
Indianapolis Colts - Brock Bowers, TE Georgia
Bowers is the ultimate offensive weapon when used right. He can line up attached to the line of scrimmage, as an outside receiver, in the slot, and in the backfield. The Colts have a need at tight end and like drafting freak athletes, of whom Bowers is one of them. Bowers steps into this offense that becomes full of playmakers with Michael Pittman Jr, Josh Downs, and Jonathan Taylor. I trust Bowers would be used effectively in an offense called by Shane Steichen. While Bowers is certainly worthy of going earlier than this, he ends up a Colt as they believe they can utilize his skillset the best.
TRADE: Pittsburgh Steelers - Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State (Seattle receives pick 22 and a 2024 3rd Round Pick)
Pittsburgh in last years draft made this same move of trading up to secure a tackle. In this mock draft, Pittsburgh does it again to get their left tackle of the future. Fashanu stays in-state and slots in as their Day 1 starter at the left tackle. Fashanu’s frame and lower body are what could make him a special tackle in the NFL. In pass protection, he has a very good anchor because of his lower body strength despite not having the best hand placement. He isn’t as dominant in the run game as some of the tackles taken before him, but Pittsburgh has a dominant run blocker in Broderick Jones on the right side. Pittsburgh turns what has been a weakness for a while into a strength in what they hope to be one of the best group of linemen in the league.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo
While cutting Darious Williams gave the Jags an extra $10 million in cap space, they were left with a pretty big hole at cornerback opposite Tyson Campbell. Enter Mitchell, who has been an incredibly fast riser up draft boards in this class. Mitchell has the athletic profile to be a top corner on a team with excellent size and speed. He was asked to play off-coverage most snaps in Toldeo but showed impressive ball skills and ability to break on passes. The Jaguar’s new defensive coordinator Ryan Neilsan runs one of the highest amounts of man coverage in the league. So Micthell will be tested early as he goes from wide receivers in the MAC to the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals - Byron Murphy, IDL Texas
Cincinnati lost interior defensive linemen DJ Reeder and BJ Hill to the Lions and Cardinals. While they did sign Sheldon Rankins, they could use more help to turn the interior of the defensive line into a strength. Murphy is an impressive gap-shooting lineman who can disrupt both pass and run plays. Being a shorter interior lineman, he can use his leverage to stop double teams and free lanes for linebackers. He is a disruptive pass-rusher who collapses pockets and creates lots of opportunities for his edge rushers to clean up sacks. With Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson on the outside, Murphy slots in with Rankins to make their defensive line the strength of their defense.
Los Angeles Rams - Jared Verse, Edge Florida State
There’s no replacing Aaron Donald, who retired about a month ago. However, the need for defensive line remains. The emergence of Byron Young last year was great for them, but they will need someone to help fill the void left by Donald. Verse slides in opposite of Young on the edge. Verse is an extremely powerful edge rusher who wins with strength both in the pass and run game. While he doesn’t have the most bend for an edge rusher, he still should be able to produce sacks with an impressive bull rush move. The Rams pretty desperately need to go defense as they make their first selection in the first round since 2016 and will do so in taking Verse.
Seattle Seahawks - Johnny Newton, IDL Illinois
Seattle could use some juice on either side of the trenches and opt to go for the best defensive lineman remaining. Newton was incredibly dominant on an every-down basis. He is incredibly quick at the snap and has amazing hands to deflect the punch of an interior offensive lineman. When quarterbacks or running backs get swallowed up by the hands of Newton, he doesn’t let them go. He forces turnovers from the interior, a trait not commonly seen from interior defensive linemen. Next to Leonard Williams, Newton should be a disruptor for Seattle that could use some pressure from the defensive line to complement their secondary.
Miami Dolphins - Graham Barton, OT/OG Duke
Miami lost two major contributors, Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt, in free agency to over $100 million contracts. It is impossible to replace both of those players with this pick, so they opt for the most versatile lineman left on the board. Barton played left tackle his last year at Duke, but will primarily play guard at the next level. Miami emphasizes a zone running scheme with their speed backs Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert and Barton fits perfectly into what they are trying to do.
TRADE: Buffalo Bills - Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU (Philidelphia receives pick 28, a 2024 4th round pick and a 2024 5th round pick)
In the wake of losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, Buffalo moves up for a guy they believe can be a true number-one receiver in the league. Thomas is an athletic freak who can outrun and jump anyone on the field. He’s great at the catch point and has some juice after the catch. Buffalo currently has a decent amount of receivers who play their best from the slot. Thomas gives them an instant starter and ball winner to throw to on the outside that fills a desperate need.
New England Patriots - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL Oregon
New England using Minnesota’s second pick chooses to leave the draft with two impact starters on the offensive side. Powers-Johnson is similar to Troy Fatanua, who is scary in the open field on screens. He has no problem moving nose tackles heavier than him and holds up extremely well in pass protection. Current center David Andrews is getting older and Powers-Johnson can slide into one of the guard slots and be the next center of the future for the Patriots.
Dallas Cowboys - Amarius Mims, OT Georgia
Dallas has many holes to fill after having a pretty dormant off-season. They have no bigger hole to fill than the one left at left tackle by the departure of Tyron Smith. Mims is a very inexperienced prospect as he only has 8 career starts to his name. However, in those starts, he looked pretty dominant and like a future franchise left tackle. Despite the low amount of starts, he was technically sound, and his impressive athletic profile and frame project extremely well to the NFL. This is a very high-risk but high-reward swing I wouldn’t be surprised that Jerry Jones makes.
Green Bay Packers - Cooper DeJean, CB/S Iowa
Green Bay notoriously only drafts players early who have an elite athletic profile for their position. With a need for a corner and a safety, the Packers fill at least one of those with Cooper DeJean. DeJean is projected by some teams to play cornerback while other teams have him projected to play safety. Regardless, DeJean is a crazy athlete who has great ball skills and is physical at the point of the catch. Concerns about his ability to hold up in man coverage may move him to safety, but he is plug-and-play for this Packers’ defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama
Tampa recently traded starting cornerback Carlton Davis and created a hole they didn’t fill in free agency. The Bucs add a starter in McKinstry who projects as a high-floor cornerback. McKinstry is very solid in man coverage and does well to stay on the hips of wide receivers. He doesn’t have the greatest athletic profile and may not have the ceiling of a Terrion Arnold, but can be a contributor from the first game and beyond as an outside cornerback.
Arizona Cardinals - Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma
Arizona signed Jonah Williams after letting go of DJ Humphries. However, he is probably viewed as more of a stop-gap option than a true solution for the position. Guyton is selected to one day be the tackle of the future to pair alongside rookie standout Paris Johnson Jr. Guyton is still raw and needs some time to develop, but can land in the perfect spot here where he gets to operate as a swing tackle with an opportunity to win the starting job over Williams.
Philadelphia Eagles - Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson
The Eagles trade back and get their guy in Wiggins. Wiggins is crazy fast who clocked in a 4.28s 40-yard dash and it shows on film. Despite his smaller frame, he is a very physical cornerback at the catch point and has great ball skills. James Bradberry’s play fell off last year, the Eagles need to get younger and faster in the secondary. After investing in the front 7 last draft and in free agency, the Eagles address their need in the secondary.
Detriot Lions - Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia
The Lions are picking from abundance with this pick as they have done a good job of addressing their needs in the off-season. After losing Josh Reynolds, the Lions need someone who can take those snaps and run the dig routes that Reynolds used to run. McConkey comes in as a quick twitch wideout who can play on the inside and outside. What sticks out about McConkey most is his elite route running ability. He goes in and out of breaks so smoothly to create separation on both in and out-breaking routes. While they have already invested lots of draft capital in this position, the Lions continue to add to a strength of theirs.
TRADE: Carolina Panthers - Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas (Baltimore received picks 33 and a 2024 4th round pick)
Carolina moved up 3 spots with Baltimore to ensure they get a guy that can start on the outside at receiver for them. Micthell has arguably the highest ceiling of the non-top 3 wide receivers in this class. He is incredible at the catch point, very fast, and runs super crisp routes. Concerns about his effort and lack of production (though mostly on his quarterback) have caused him to maybe slip a little in some evaulator’s eyes. After adding Diontae Johnson, Carolina moves up to grab the guys they hope can be Bryce Young’s top target for years to come.
San Fransico 49ers - Darius Robinson, Edge Missouri
The 49ers will need to replace the snaps that Chase Young provided for them down the stretch last year. Enter Robinson, who is a strong physical edge rusher who wins with a powerful bull rush on pass rush reps. He isn’t the most polished pass-rusher but should be able to handle himself against NFL-level tackles because of his size and strength. Robinson profiles to be a standard 4-3 defensive end and can line up opposite Nick Bosa for the foreseeable future.
Kansas City Chiefs - Troy Franklin, WR Oregon
Lastly, we get to the back-to-back champs. One of the main issues that consistently hurt them in the regular season was a lack of consistent wide receiver play. Troy Franklin comes in as the new speedster who can take the top off the defense while allowing Kelce and Rasheed Rice to work underneath. Franklin has amazing speed and is a very twitchy route runner. If he can become a better tracker of the football down the field, he can become an immediate contributor for Mahomes to rely on.