NFC North Preview
Starting off with Mid
With the NFL season a few weeks away, I will go through each division and dive a little more into what I am expecting from these teams. For each team, I will answer three questions: What about the team is promising, What about the team is concerning, and What is a realistic outcome for this team? Let’s get in with what may be the grossest division I do.
NFC South Preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What is promising?
The Bucs were one of the biggest surprises of the NFL last year as most people, including myself, wrote them off after Tom Brady retired. Instead, a resurgent year from Baker Mayfield and savvy play calling from the then Offensive Coordinator Dave Cannales led them to a division title. Offensively, this team returns most of the same core. Mike Evans will continue to have 1,000 yard seasons till he retires as he remains the focal point of this offense. I’m very excited about what this offensive line can look like this year. Tristan Wirfs may be the best tackle in the league, and he seamlessly switched from Right Tackle to Left Tackle. The addition of Graham Barton will be great as he projects as a great plug-and-play center. This unit can be a real strength if you can get some increased level of play from guys like Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke.
Defensively, this team has a bonafide star at each level of the defense. Vita Vea, Nose Tackle, Lavonte David, Off-Ball Linebacker, and Antoine Winfield Jr, Free Saftey, are all elite players at their positions. I think the pass rush will be a true strength as well. Calijah Kancey and YaYa Diaby are second-year pass rushers who I can see taking a big step forward for this unit.
What is concerning?
There is always the concern about quarterback regression. If Baker can’t repeat what he did last year, this team could get ugly fast. Apart from theorizing quarterback regression, this running game needs to be more efficient. Rachaad White was great last year in Fantasy Football but averaged a mere 3.63 yards per carry. Cannales was committed to the run, which helped Baker in the passing game. Now new Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen will be tasked with making this run game even more efficient.
I worry a decent bit about this cornerback room. The Bucs traded away Carlton Davis to the Lions this year leaving a big hole at the other cornerback position. Jamel Dean is a very good starting corner, but I worry about this unit as a whole. Bryce Hall is a nice low-risk pick-up, but he will have to stay healthy. A game engraved into my memory is when CJ Stroud passed for 470 yards and 5 touchdowns in Week 9 against this unit. They won’t play a quarterback of Stroud’s caliber in the division this year, but the possibility that this unit can outright lose them games is possible.
What is a realistic outcome?
With the NFC South being weaker, a repeat as champions is certainly possible. Baker Mayfield will again have to learn a new offensive system which he has had to do time and time again. The defense is a good unit but closer to league average than the top 10. They retained some key pieces this offseason in Baker and Mike Evans. However, I don’t know how much better they got from last year where teams in their division made big upgrades this offseason. With the high level of talent on this team, I don’t expect the bottom to fall out on this team, but expect another season around .500.
New Orleans Saints
What is promising?
I like what this defense brings to the table in 2024. Cam Jordan and Demario Davis are pretty old but still are playing as above-average starters. Carl Granderson’s emergence on the edge was massive for this team last year and I expect him to take another step. The pass rush should be a big positive with bringing in Chase Young to serve as a pass rush specialist for them. I love the secondary depth after adding Kool-Aid McKinstry. Alontae Taylor is a beast in the nickel and Marshon Lattimore should churn out another productive year.
What is concerning?
My concerns are with this offense squarely. Klint Kubiak comes from the Mike Shannahan coaching tree and should bring in some fresh ideas that haven’t been there since Sean Payton left. My concern starts with the offensive line. This unit has the potential to completely derail the offense. Trevor Penning is a poor starter at Tackle and they are really needing rookie Tackle Tailese Faugu to be great right away. Cesar Ruiz, Eric McCoy, and Lucas Patrick are a below-average to fine interior unit but nothing special. Alvin Kamara is not a very efficient runner at this point, though still has value in Fantasy Football. Unless Rashid Shaheed makes a major leap, the depth behind star Chris Olave is really troubling. Then you get to Derek Carr, who has been declining since his stellar year in 2021. Carr lacked the desire to take aggressive shots down the field last year and often reverted to checking the ball down. Overall, he was a negative and will need better play calling to help lift the floor of this offense.
What is a realistic outcome?
The Saints are set on being .500 and in the hunt for the playoffs come late December. Being in a division that has been poor in recent years, they’ve been able to get away with not doing a full rebuild. I like the defense, and under Dennis Allen, they have been a top 10 unit and I expect them to be that level. However, this is an offense that could be painful to watch again. Derek Carr will need to play like he did 3 years ago and Chris Olave will have to emerge as a top 10 receiver. Again, the defense should keep this team from the basement, but this team’s ceiling looks like a first-round exit.
Carolina Panthers
What is promising?
The Panthers are showing signs of being a normal franchise, which is a far cry from the dumpster fire they were last year. The offensive additions have me believing this can be closer to a league-average unit. Let’s start with new Head Coach Dave Cannales, who has helped resurrect the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield at his last two stops. Cannales will focus on establishing the ground game to help open up easier throws for Quarterback Bryce Young, which he didn’t have last year. With new additions Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis on the interior of the offensive line, the unit should be able to open holes for Chubba Hubbard and eventually Jonathan Brooks. Brooks will help bring an explosive element to this offense that it was sorely lacking last year. The offense also lacked any true difference-making wide receivers last year but now bring in Diontae Johnson. Johnson’s specialty is getting open and should help open up the middle of the field for Young where he couldn’t access last year. If these additions can help bring this offense to even a top-20 unit and make Bryce Young look like a potential franchise quarterback, that will be a huge win.
What is concerning?
Sans Derrick Brown and a healthy Jaycee Horn, this defense is really lacking talent. The additions of Jadeveon Clowney, DJ Wonnum, Jordan Fuller, and Josey Jewell I don’t believe are enough to make up for the losses of Brian Burns, Frankie Luvu, and Jeremy Chinn, all plus starters for this unit. Retaining defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero will help bring some continuity from last year. However, I’m not sure what the strength of this defense is supposed to be. I think there’s a decent chance opposing offenses will have their way both through the air and on the ground again this unit.
What is a realistic outcome?
After the results of last season, I think being a functional team would be great progress. Getting an answer on whether Bryce Young is the guy is what is most important. If that question is ambiguous after this year, it was a failure. The Panthers are very far from contending or even getting to the playoffs. My expectation is this team will be picking in the top 5 again, but could be feisty towards the end of the year like the Cardinals were last year.
Atlanta Falcons
What is promising?
The offensive overhaul here will be very exciting to watch. Bringing in Kirk Cousins, even off a torn Achilles, should be light years ahead of the play they got from Desmond Ridder last year. I am very excited to watch first-time playcaller Zac Robinson. Coming from the Sean McVay coaching tree, he and Kirk should be able to marry some concepts from both the Vikings, Cousins's last stop, and the Rams, Robinson’s last stop, into this offense. The infrastructure is there for this offense to be great. Bijan Robinson is an unreal talent out of the backfield and my expectation is he will get fed a ton this year. Drake London looks primed for a breakout as he has developed since his rookie year from a contested catch guy to an all-around receiver. Kyle Pitts is another intriguing option and I would like to see him used like TJ Hockenson was in Minnesota. The offensive line led by Chris Lindstrom looks to have another strong campaign. I am extremely bullish on this offense.
What is concerning?
The otherwise of the ball I am very down on. Grady Jarrett, AJ Terrell, and Jessie Bates are stars on this defense. After them, the defense is full of what I think are replacement-level players. Using the 8th overall pick in last April’s draft on Michael Penix Jr could be beneficial long-term, but missing out on a guy like Laiatu Latu or Dallas Turner hurts. The pass rush again looks very bleak for what feels like forever now. The linebacker play is fine headlined by Kaden Elliss and Troy Anderson. My biggest worry is with the second corner spot. A position battle between Mike Hughes and Kevin King (yes that Kevin King from the 2021 NFC Championship game) is as bad as it gets.
What is a realistic outcome?
I like this team’s offensive firepower to lead them to the division crown. While the talent is not great, I believe in the new Head Coach Raheem Morris to get the most out of this unit like he did the Rams defense last year. Kirk Cousins will need to stay healthy and rebound well from his injury for this team to take the leap it needs to. I expect the team to rely on Bijan Robinson early in the year as Kirk gets up to speed.
NFC South
Falcons - Y
Buccaneers
Saints
Panthers
I have the Falcons taking the division with the Bucs and Saints right behind. With the NFC being the weaker conference, both of those teams could compete for a Wild Card spot, but I see other teams that made significant improvements taking those spots.
Good job, living in the Tampa area, we certainly hope Baker can take them to the playoffs again. Being from AFC towns my whole life, it’s difficult getting interested in a NFC team, Go Bucs!